Economy

Working for the Virginia Employment Commission, the Demographics & Workforce Group has developed a picture of what the state’s population will look like in 2020, 2030, and 2040. Result: Some areas will grow, others will shrink.

Projected to see the biggest population declines between now and 2040 are Lee County (-8%), Arlington County (-5%), Virginia Beach (-4%), and Alleghany County (-4%).

Henrico County has lost an eminent domain case brought by a developer who had a chunk of her land acquired/seized by the county. A jury unanimously awarded the the (former) property owner an additional $236,750 for the land, which had been taken as part of a road-extension project.

Quickly put:

Emily Sterling owned a half-acre plot — acquired by her father in 1997 — at what is now a rapidly growing section of western Henrico.

The county offered Sterling $126,000 for the 1/5th of an acre it needed for the project.

Sterling declined, but offered the full half acre to Henrico for $253,000.

The county said no and took its 1/5th acre via eminent domain.

The Richmond Times-Dispatch asked Richmond Association of Realtors^® CEO to weigh in on Virginia’s housing recovery. Check out what she had to say by clicking here.

Fannie Mae’s latest National Housing Survey found that Americans are feeling more positive about the economy, and are happy to make predictions about it.

More people expect mortgage rates to go up and housing prices to go down over the next year, for example. And — based on what I couldn’t tell you — “51 percent of respondents now say it would be easy to get a mortgage.”

Here’s the good news: In its 2012 report on the National Mover Rate, the Census Bureau found that 1.4 million more people moved in 2012 than did in 2011.

Here’s the bad news: That’s only a 0.4 percent increase.

Here’s the good news: It’s still an increase, and the 2011 rate was a record low. Heck, 12 percent of Americans moved in 2012.

So think of it as yet another small sign of the housing rebound.

Who were the biggest movers?

According to this HousingWire story, a good portion of the nation’s homebuyers fall into one of two camps: first-time buyers with low-interest FHA loans, and investors looking for single-family homes to rent.

The battleground: the $225K to $400K price range.

Nearly one out of every 3 buyers was an investor, typically paying cash for houses with a median price of $245,000, according to DataQuick.

Simultaneously, 25.5% of mortgage originations with FHA financing were to first time homebuyers, down for the second time in two months.

The House of Representatives has been talking a lot about avoiding the fiscal cliff by reducing or eliminating tax deductions, and you know what’s going to be high on the list: the mortgage interest deduction.

That’s why NAR has put out a Call for Action — write to your representatives and tell them not to mess with the MID.

NAR’s position is that the mortgage interest deduction is vital to the stability of the American housing market and economy and we will remain vigilant in opposing any future plan that modifies or excludes the deductibility of mortgage interest.

The October 2012 Virginia Home Sales Report has been released and yet again, most state-wide indicators show an improved housing market in the Commonwealth.

As shown above, the pace of home sales in October 2012 (7,017) marked a 12% improvement over the same month last year (6,263).  Furthermore…

One of the best indicators of the improving health of the housing market is the percentage of homes for sale that are distressed.

If there are a lot of them (short sales and REOs/foreclosures), they keep overall prices down — and it indicates that there’s still of lot of mess left to clean up. That was the case through the entire housing collapse.

As we recover, though, the percentage goes down. So we look at those numbers to get a rough, overall picture of the market … and hope to see fewer distressed properties out there.

All that said…

We only have October numbers for MRIS and Hampton Roads, but they do cover a large portion of Virginia.

Four solid pieces of good news about the housing market — today, and looking ahead.

1. The number of homeowners underwater has dropped below 30 percent for the first time in, well, forever. That’s in large part due to rising home prices values, thanks to reduced inventory. In short, it’s a decent barometer of the market’s overall health.